IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

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IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

Postby Red Dwarf » Wed Jan 11, 2012 2:42 am

Always recommended reading - Terry Zink comments on IBM's predictions for 2016
http://www.circleid.com/posts/20120107_ ... s_no_spam/
IBM believes that spam will be filtered out, and relevant mail about our areas of interest will be filtered in.

IBM's 5 predictions are in the text of his article, and in a video link
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Re: IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

Postby AlphaCentauri » Wed Jan 11, 2012 10:17 am

I haven't looked at the video he mentions, but the other predictions are pretty shaky. By 2016, four years from now? Get rid of the digital divide? Sounds like a "Have" that has no idea how much "Have-Nots" haven't got. Internet service is pretty far up on Maslow's hierarchy.

And having biometrics replace passwords? Sounds like someone who hasn't tried to solve the problem of ZeuS trojan. Any biometric has to be converted to digital form to be transmitted, and it has to be saved for anyone to use it for verification. Once your digital file is in someone else's hands, it becomes a password that can't be changed, since it's keyed to your biometrics.
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Re: IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

Postby NotBuyingIt » Wed Jan 11, 2012 10:07 pm

It would be lovely to think that spam will disappear by 2016 and that IBM will not.

(Seriously, IBM really looks like it's doing well.)
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Re: IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

Postby HansTheBlueFrog » Fri Jan 20, 2012 6:58 am

NotBuyingIt wrote:It would be lovely to think that spam will disappear by 2016 and that IBM will not.

(Seriously, IBM really looks like it's doing well.)


Maybe they should stop predicting. :(

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Re: IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

Postby Red Dwarf » Fri Jan 20, 2012 3:14 pm

Mind you, if the drop from August 2010 to August 2011 could be repeated each year, we could see how such a prediction is reasonable
http://www.senderbase.org/home/detail_spam_volume?displayed=last18months

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Looking at the 18 months period starting from the year preceding that graph, you can see just how far we have come
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Re: IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

Postby Red Dwarf » Sun Dec 30, 2012 3:26 pm

Over the past 18 months the Ironport Senderbase statistics show a continuing downward trend compared with previous years (see above)

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Re: IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

Postby Red Dwarf » Tue May 07, 2013 9:45 pm

Reference: http://cbl.abuseat.org/images/totalflow-threeyears.png

Over the past 3 years there has been a significant decrease in spam, as shown at abuseat.org
It is currently at 1/8th of the peak it was at back then

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Re: IBM predicts the demise of spam by 2016

Postby Red Dwarf » Tue May 07, 2013 9:54 pm

Ironport's Senderbase has changed the appearance of its chart. However here is the global spam volume report for the past 18 months

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Reference: http://www.senderbase.org/static/spam#tab=1
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